You know how they always say that Trump drags down Republicans down ballot? Well those people are about to be proven wrong, if these polls are right.
According to the latest data, Senate Republicans aren’t performing as well as Trump – and if we’re not careful, we could end up with a Dem-run Senate overseen by Republican President Trump.
At a glance:
- Republicans lead in Montana but face challenges in other key states, with competitive races tightening in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Texas.
- Democrats hold large polling leads in some battlegrounds, and Republicans struggle with fundraising gaps.
- Potential problem spots for the GOP have emerged in Texas and Nebraska, where polls show closer-than-expected races.
A recent internal polling memo from the Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) revealed both opportunities and concerns for Senate Republicans heading into the 2024 elections. While Republicans maintain a modest lead in Montana and see tightening races in states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the memo highlights challenges in Texas and Nebraska, where incumbents face unexpectedly close contests.
Montana remains the most vulnerable state for Democrats, with Republican candidate Tim Sheehy holding a slight edge over incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Tester. In Ohio, Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown’s lead has narrowed, but he still maintains a 6-point advantage over Republican Bernie Moreno.
However, open-seat races in Michigan and Maryland seem to be slipping away from the GOP, with Democrats Elissa Slotkin and former Maryland Governor Larry Hogan pulling ahead. Notably, Texas Senator Ted Cruz is just one point ahead of his opponent in the latest poll, sparking concerns for Republicans in the traditionally red state.
The memo underscores the importance of additional media spending and expanded efforts to protect key races, with the SLF set to allocate further investments based on the latest polling data.
With Cruz only one point ahead of his opponent, we are seeing just how dramatically our states can change when Democrats replace the population there. Texas is becoming increasingly Blue as a result of the increasingly immigrant population – and we mean both legal and illegal.
Let’s hope Cruz can hang on.