The race is so close it’s like watching a basketball game tied at 110 in the final seconds.
At a glance:
- Trump leads Harris by a slim margin of 50.2% to 49.5% in Nate Silver’s prediction model, marking his first lead since September 19.
- Harris had been leading Trump in the model a day earlier, but new polling data has shifted the momentum.
- The lead is expected to continue fluctuating as Election Day approaches, with the race remaining a near 50/50 toss-up.
In the final weeks before Election Day, former President Donald Trump has narrowly taken the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in pollster Nate Silver’s election forecast. According to Silver’s updated prediction model, Trump now leads Harris by just over half a percentage point, 50.2% to 49.5%. This marks the first time Trump has pulled ahead in Silver’s model since mid-September.
The model, updated Thursday, reflects a slight gain for Trump, who benefited from strong polling numbers, including a 2-point lead in a Fox News poll and a favorable survey in Georgia. Just a day earlier, Harris had been leading in Silver’s aggregation, holding a 50.3% to 49.4% edge.
Silver emphasized that the race remains extremely close and that the lead could easily flip again in the coming days. Comparing the race to a nail-biter basketball game, Silver predicted the back-and-forth could continue until Election Day.
While Harris had enjoyed momentum earlier in the race, especially after receiving President Biden’s endorsement and performing well in swing states, recent polls show the race tightening, with Trump making gains nationally and in battleground states.
Silver has noted that this election is one of the closest he’s ever forecasted, saying, “I’ve never seen an election in which the forecast spent more time in the vicinity of 50/50, and I probably never will.”
We don’t want to jinx it, but it looks like Trump has this in the bag.